Taleb’s “Triplet of Opacity”
The “Triplet of Opacity”:
- Illusion of Understanding- everyone thinks they know what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize.
- Retrospective Distortion- We can assess matters only after the fact (like a rear-view mirror); history appear clearer and more organized than in empirical reality.
- Overvaluation of Factual Information and the Handicap of Authoritative and Learned People- We give more value to facts than should be warranted and are at the mercy of those with authority and who are learned, especially when they “Platonify.”
The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb, pp. 8.